The Serpent and the Go Board
A story goes that a poor man was hiking over a mountain one day, when he happened upon a giant serpent next to a Go board. The man realized he was easy prey for the serpent, and asked for a way out. The serpent obliged, and challenged the man to a game of Go. The winner could claim the other’s life.
The game was hard, as the serpent had amazing skills, but the poor man was able to win in the end. Not believing his luck, the man asked for riches from the serpent. The serpent gave some of the treasure from previous travellers, and let the poor man pass by.
With the new found treasure, the man bought a better home, and boasted of his great fortune. Men throughout the village wanted to meet this serpent, and win a game as well. Rich, brave, and wise they all walked the steep mountain to find the serpent. There as was described sat a mighty serpent, and a Go board. Each man challenged, and died horribly from his loss.
When the men did not return, more members of the village went out to find the serpent. None returned. Finally, the man who had been a poor traveller walked up the mountain to see the problem. There he found the serpent fat, and happy.
“I see now,” said the man, “you have beaten me at Go. I only saw the board game, but you saw my entire village.”
Go is a game found in Japan, and other parts of the world. It is about taking over large areas of a board, by making your pieces circle around those areas. The game has been a part of videogame history for decades. Atari is a term that means to warn people of being almost captured.
“Yamauchi was as sharp as anyone I had ever met. He ran his company like he played Go, never giving up a single point. I realized quickly that even though he was my friend, he was never going to give me anything. I had to take it, and in doing so earn his respect. It was how he played the game. (Henk Rogers)”
It was no surprise to me that my interview with Dr. EisDrachenJaeger would be about Go. When I asked him about the John Lucas thread, and how he personally feels about it, he said this.
My main issue with all of this is the key pieces, the go stones that make up the shape of this industry are ethereal and ephemeral .
You see for me, I can see that there is a great deal of turbulent disruptive events that are going to upend our perception of gaming (I foresee six major events happening in this 4 year time span, that will have varied ramifications given the current state of the market which can develop in about 5 different ways depending on, what is most effective in resonating with the consumer. In ways they wont understand or fathom until it happens), to cause massive expeditious changes in direction and focus in the gaming industry. The cloud strategies Sony and MS are going for with services as the backbone of their business isn't going to help them here, that much I can say. (My personal belief, on a future that society is pushing for that will reject itself)
We're only seeing the tip of the iceberg and I can guarantee that almost all of the predictions will not play the way they think. Everyone is going to be surprised. Hence my silence and neutrality, those arguing against JL are as narrow focused as he is, the only difference is one side understands the WiiU and the other doesn't (both really don’t have a keen grasp on the machines full potential)
Most of the people in that thread who have any theories in their heads developing are either cautiously optimistic or interested in the pathway Nintendo can take to get market share, traction and maintain that on a consistent by the by basis. It’s also spurring their interest to understand the benefits of the hardware.
Quite a bit of people don’t keep up with all the news so they also try to argue with Lucas, but they're woefully misinformed or simply unaware of a lot of details. Details that JL has lined out in favor of his argument, so of course there is some disconnect with what the industry really looks like as a whole. I can tell you its not sitting pretty at the moment. Not in the slightest.
People are going to have a lot of interesting choices they have to make(consumers and devs alike), its not going to be an elegant game of Go.
I asked him about the 6 points, and what he foresaw. I also asked why he saw it all as a Go board.
The gaming industry is under constant shift and change, seeing every piece at play takes a keen sight not many are gifted with, like a Go board, as the pieces are played, the image shifts and the flow changes, like a large puzzle, those plays that are made reflect on the board and they become something entirely new, something unseen. It takes a certain kind of person to be able to see all that. Hiroshi Yamauchi was one such person, and Go was a game he thoroughly enjoyed as a pastime.Its a game of tact, skill,deft adaptability and fortitude. I also am quite fond of Go.
The six major events, are based on 5 changing factors, more or less decisions each section of the industry decides upon that changes course and shapes gaming irrevocably.
Sony moving towards becoming a service,
Valve's plays(issue with Valve though is they'll need to find some way to broach the adolescent market),
Mobile market growth and burst,
the plays for mind and market share through software and the disruptive presence that sit silently in the shadows hiding behind other perceived changes in the industry such as the introduction of VR,
the technology tools built for the machines to use to supplement software design and the evolution of gaming craft in the coming years. Its a perfect storm,
a tempest of events that play into the hands of the versed.
The Versed?
The versed are the market leaders, those who ignite the fire and drive with in the consumers. Nintendo's an old dragon, hence why JL thinks they have the best approach to leading the market, if they ever get in a chance to capitalize on that position. They're also exceedingly wealthy, they have 812.8 billion yen (10.5 billion dollars) in the bank, and 469 billion yen in investments, so there are a variety of investments they can make to build the brand as well.
These companies don’t seem to have the correct strategy. Sony's been doing some good stuff like the whole "next gen version upgrade" stuff they got going on, but it will be for naught if they can’t make inroads into the system progression.
I personally see the industry as one that is about to experience a contraction, before any supposed collapse this will occur. Why? Because its a winding road that leads to some fundamental changes occurring before anyone capitalizes on the interest shift in the minds of the public and gamers.
You oft will see me comparing the Wii U to a BMW. Why do you ask? Because what are BMWs? Cars designed for performance,handling and efficiency, German engineering at its finest. They're also reliable and as they age, become less expensive. The same applies to the WiiU down to its core design philosophy and pipeline pool structure. Its a machine that is hands on, and easy/inexpensive to port to.
People aren’t really fully aware of what that machine is capable of. Its also a bit like the Wonderful 101, the more you invest into the game, the more enjoyment and satisfaction you get out of it as it teaches you something.
I'd say the PS4 and the Xbox One are haulers. Dodge Rams.
Wii U has less horsepower but a hell of a lot more torque.
What is the contraction?
The contraction will be shown the best by the revenue charts for the gaming industry year on year for that particular year. You'll see a severe drop in the total revenue made in the industry. Any money still being made will be made by the creative. Those people will take time to get re-acclimated into the gaming sphere in some form or another, especially those who come off the drop in the mobile burst. They'll have to get their fix somewhere while the phone market get its slump sorted out, and its business model fixed.
2014-2015 Market Share. The one with the most presence come fall 2014 of the gaming market.The devs will go to where they can find the widest safety net, so they will put their games where it suits them best.
Developer Creativity and Interest: Those who ignite the creative spark and prescience in their eyes will get fantastic software. This allows them to offer the consumer the best variety in software.Value proposition and such.
Consumer reaction to overcrowded market and new devices brought to the table like Oculus Rift and how support is handled.
Resource management after the bubble bursts. This one is especially important for bringing in the chaos into a sense of stability and utilizing those resources in the most efficient manner.
I asked about the game industry, and he compared it to a bike.
I think there is a shift in the road thats going to put some spurs in the car tires of a midnight drive rolling by to destruction
Gaming's too niche. The industry at large is not sustainable as it is, its vulnerable and even if things stay the same, it'd be a slow and deathly crawl.
Games make more money than Hollywood does at their highest. But the audience is way smaller.
He stopped the article there, and left me pondering. How do companies in the industry play Go? Are they seeing only the board, and not the village? How is it that so many people I have spoken to predict a bursting bubble? Sadly, the Serpent had no answer, he simply waited, and observed. I went to look at the village, and what may be about to capture it.
